Fat Steve's Blatherings

Saturday, March 26, 2005

Fearless Crystal Ball Gazing

      In Iran, the maneuvering goes on (Hat Tip: Best of the Web Today).  But just what is the point?  And what will happen?

      My read: The Europeans are looking for a victory for 'soft power.'  The Iranians are playing for time.  The U.S. is playing to win.

      The Europeans negotiate with Iran in the hopes of preventing it from acquiring nuclear weapons.  They really ache to do this, so they can preen in front of the world, showing how diplomacy is better than military action, and they are the best diplomats.

      As a matter of fact, they've already lost the negotiations.  They lost when the U.S. agreed to join them, in return for real assurances that Iran won't get the bomb, and support at the Security Council if the Europeans fail.  The Iranians will never agree to Europe's demands.  So sooner or later, the Europeans will have to either admit defeat and support the U.S. at the UN, or welsh on their agreement, making them look even more weak, cowardly, and foolish.

      The Iranians are playing for time.  They think that they can acquire nuclear weapons, and scare off the U.S. with them.  But it's one thing to have one clumsy nuke, it's quite another to have lots of them, it's still a third thing to be able to deliver them.  Iran with a few bombs isn't going to scare us much.

      If the U.S. has evidence they're about to get bombs, we'll move on them.  Even if they somehow get a few, their regime is unstable.  Are they going to nuke themselves, to stop demonstrations?

      The U.S. aims at the destruction of the Iranian regime.  Instead of invading, this will probably occur by revolution within Iran.  It's also likely that Syria and Hezb'allah will go first, and that their fall will destabilize the mullahs.  In any case, the U.S. will hit where the Iranians are weak and vulnerable.  If necessary, we will invade, but that isn't likely.  If we do invade, it will probably follow rioting in the streets, and attempts by the mullahs to butcher the demonstrators.

      Prediction: Another U.S. victory, more evidence of European perfidy in the archives, more evidence of state support of terrorism, more defeats for the terrorists.



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