Fat Steve's Blatherings

Monday, April 25, 2005

A Prediction to Remember

      Curzon at Coming Anarcy goes out on a limb:
      As it happens, the Bush Administration has managed, intentionally or otherwise, to follow Amnesty’s advice: all military aid to Nepal has been suspended since the February coup. The result? The army is running out of ammo and [King] Gyanendra is now getting cozy with China and North Korea, two regimes who will sell him arms on the cheap and won’t give two shakes about his human rights record. So we’ve forfeited any influence we had over the King and have lost geopolitical ground. Thank you Amnesty—mission accomplished.

      When chaos, collectivization, and genocide do arrive in Nepal, don’t expect foreign powers to do anything about it until it’s too late. No one has any interests at stake—sorry, KNF. That’s just the cold hard truth. The US and the EU will say things but won’t lift a finger until it’s all over. Eventually, China and/or India will invade ala Vietnam’s occupation of Cambodia in 1979 and only then will the reeducation camps, starvation brought on by collectivization, the torture chambers, the mass graves, the death squads, and the executions come to light. In the aftermath, Amnesty and their myopic ilk will find something about US foreign policy to criticize while solemnly saying “never again,” as if they mean it. Mark my words.

      UPDATE! Despite being so despondent, I was overjoyed to read that New Delhi has lifted the arms embargo on Nepal and is working with the government. This editorial in the Times of India couldn’t say it better: “Talking to Nepal is good, now think out of the box.” Amen—we’re going to need it…

      We'll see what occurs, but I wouldn't bet against Curzon on this one.



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