Fat Steve's Blatherings

Sunday, May 29, 2005

What Makes a State Republican?

      I seldom bother with VDARE, a site run by people I consider racist, but Kaus pointed out a very interesting post over there.

      Steve Sailer says the answer to the question in the title of this post is: AFFORDABLE FAMILY FORMATION.  Red states tend to be inland (more land), have cheaper housing, have (white) women who've been married a long time, and have a high (white) fertility rate.  The last two are particularly significant:
      As I first reported in VDARE.COM last December, the single best correlation with Bush’s share of the vote by state that anybody has yet found is: the average years married by white women between age 18 and 44: an astonishing r-squared = 83 percent.

      (This has to be one of the highest r-squareds for a single unexpected factor ever seen in political science.)

      Bush carried the top 25 states ranked on "years married."

      For example, white women in Utah, where Bush had his best showing with 71 percent of the total vote, led the nation by being married an average of 17.0 years during those 27 years from age 18 through 44.

      In contrast, in Washington D.C., where Bush only took 9 percent, the average white woman is married only 7.4 years. . . .

      Bush carried 25 of the top 26 states in white total fertility (number of babies per white woman), while Kerry was victorious in the bottom 16. In Utah, for instance, white women average 2.45 babies.  In the District of Columbia, white women average only 1.11 babies.

      The correlation between white total fertility and Bush’s share produced an impressive r-squared = 74 percent.

      While the Marriage Gap appeared to be somewhat more important than the Baby Gap, together they proved extraordinarily powerful in explaining Bush’s performance—their combined r-squared = 88 percent.

      If I were a Democrat, this stuff would scare me crapless.  The thought of being the party of old farts, the non-white, and young people who won't have children, is truly terrifying.



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